Russia moves more landing ships to Ukraine, Ukrainian and Russian drills

Landing during Russian naval exercises. Source: Armyinform

2022/02/04 – 01:08 •

Crimea, Hybrid War

According to the monitoring group, several additional groups of Russian ships entered the Mediterranean Sea in late January and early February:

• On January 20, 2022, a medium intelligence vessel of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation entered the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Gibraltar.
• On January 26, 2022, three Russian landing ships from the Baltic Fleet entered the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Gibraltar, approaching Ukraine.
• On January 27, 2022, three Russian Northern Fleet landing ships entered the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Gibraltar, heading towards Ukraine.
• A group of three ships from the Russian Federation’s Pacific Fleet was due to arrive in the Mediterranean Sea from the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal on February 2, which has yet to be confirmed.

The Russian missile cruiser Varyag, flagship of the Russian Federation’s Pacific Fleet, which was announced to arrive in the Mediterranean on February 2 for military exercises. Source: TASS

In total, the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean Sea has grown from 11 ships in December 2021 to 24 ships in early February. Part of these ships is heading for Crimea in the Black Sea.

The explanation of the exercise and the realistic approach

Officially, Russia gives the exercise an explanation for these actions. In particular, he announced the joint exercises of all the Russian fleets scheduled for February. The exercises are expected to involve 140 warships and support ships, 60 aircraft, 1,000 units of military equipment and around 10,000 military personnel.

These exercises are part of a series of military exercises demonstrating strength during the current standoff between Russia and NATO. For example, on January 21, Russia, Iran and China launched a trilateral naval exercise in the northern Indian Ocean. On January 31, the Russian Northern Fleet conducted exercises in the Norwegian Sea.

“The crews of the guided-missile cruiser Marshal Ustinov and the frigate Fleet Admiral Kasatonov tracked down the fictitious enemy submarines using an anti-submarine warfare helicopter,”TASS Russian state-backed outlet reported.

Russian drills in the Baltic and Black Seas in late January ended prematurely on Jan. 31, in what some saw as a diplomatic gesture. In fact, the exercises ended earlier because of bad weather.

In addition, the Moscow Armed Forces were planning to carry out exercises about 150 miles off the coast of Ireland in early February. However, irish fishermen feared that live filming would endanger their profession and eventually succeeded in disrupting the drills. Officially, Moscow postponed exercised as “a gesture of goodwill” after appeals from the Irish government and fishermen, “in order not to hinder fishing activities”.

The next phase of exercises, in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, is scheduled for mid-February. The timing of the naval exercises coincides with the timing of the Russian exercises in Belarus Soyuznaya Reshimost (the State of the Union resolution) scheduled for February 10-20, 2022.

Therefore, in mid-February, Ukraine expects large military exercises simultaneously in the north and south. These exercises will include missile ships, landing ships as well as Russian air defense systems and Iskander ballistic missile systems.

“It is estimated that a Russian naval group of landing ships in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean can embark and transport around 160 main tanks or up to 280 armored fighting vehicles and around 4,500 marines. Basically a brigade of marines, reinforced by two tank battalions and mechanized and artillery units. The Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy has such a brigade – the 810th Separate Marine Brigade [based in Sevastopol in occupied Crimea] and a separate 382nd Marine Battalion [based in Temryuk in Russian Krasnodar krai],” The army informs estimates.

The large landing ships that Russia is concentrating in the Black Sea have a draft of 3.7-4.5 meters. This means that they must have the appropriate depth near the shore where the landing will take place. Such conditions on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast can be found in the western part of the Ukrainian Black Sea, starting from the port city of Zaliznyi and closer to Odessa, military expert Vladyslav Voloshyn writing.

Landing can also be carried out without the conditions of a deep coastline by floating armored vehicles or with the use of additional smaller ships. However, in this case, the landing would be longer and therefore more dangerous.

The Russian landing ship Georgiy Pobedonosets, one of the ships that entered the Mediterranean Sea on January 27, 2022.

The Black Sea Monitoring Group also reports that

“As of January 31, 2022, NATO warships outside the Black Sea had not been present in the Black Sea for 29 days already… Thus, the risks linked to the activity of Russian warships in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea end January 2022 (unlike the previous month) increased significantly.”

Ukrainian military rhearse repel a possible Russian amphibious invasion

In response to the increased Russian military threat, the Ukrainian army regularly organizes its own military exercises. In particular, Ukrainian soldiers trained to repel a possible amphibious invasion by Russian troops, using Ukrainian rocket launchers such as Hurricane and the newer Neptun, designed specifically as a rocket system for coastal protection.

Hurricane during military exercises on February 2, 2022. Source: Joint Forces Command

Ukrainian Neptun launchers during training to repel a possible amphibious invasion during training on February 2, 2022. Source: Joint Forces Command

Ukrainian ships during training on February 2, 2022. Source: Joint Forces Command

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the situation remains tense and a new Russian invasion remains possible, although there is no sign that Russia is directly planning the attack in the coming days.

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Tags: Occupied Crimea, Russian Army, Russian Navy, Ukrainian Navy