Eusebio R. Sheffield 
The first phase of Putin’s war ended when Russia was unable to maintain supply lines to the forces besieging Kyiv. The second phase moved mainly to the eastern Donbass front, where logistics were suddenly less important.
Russia was able to take Kreminna, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk within a few tens of kilometers from their main supply nodes – railheads. Note how the Izyum salient, with its longer supply lines, barely moved in three months. But in the east, not only could Russia avoid the long and difficult lines of communication (supply), but she could literally send her tanks and artillery guns to nearby railheads to directly load ammunition:
Russia is so incompetent when it comes to logistics that it has literally sent in its heavy equipment to stock up and stock up on ammunition, rather than doing what every other army in the world is doing: using much more efficient trucks. I can’t even imagine how many of these tanks and artillery guns broke down trying to self-supply. These vehicles are not built for long road trips.
But as stupid as it may have been before HIMARS (and other Western long-range artillery), now it’s literally impossible. With Ukraine’s ability to reach out and touch anything within 85 kilometers of the front lines, Russia badly needs 1) new supply depots, well to the rear, and 2) more trucks to transport supplies. And they better hurry, because their existing repositories go “boom!” Each night.
A blogger from the Donetsk People’s Republic says his side is in a state of “panic” more such attackslike that of ShakterskDonetsk, which led to the evacuation of residents.
Shakhtersk. BC warehouse. Amazing people rightly (our army is not mistaken) placed it within reach of the [Ukrainians] and checked MLRS and finally got a positive result. The one they were waiting for. And amazing people kept fuel and lubricants at the tank yard in the frontline district of Donetsk, and also… And again and again […]
In the city, darkness and panic, ammunition is lost, the amazing person who did not move the stock further is unknown. And it will not be known […]
[Ukrainians] will be destroy everything on the territory of the DPR. Both military and civilian.
This pre-war look at Russian Logistics sketched out the exponential challenges of transporting supplies over longer distances:
It is possible to calculate how far trucks can run using simple beer calculations. Assuming the existing road network can support speeds of 45 mph, a single truck can make three trips per day up to 45 miles away: one hour to load, one hour to drive to unit taken charging, one hour to unload and another hour to return to base. Repeating this cycle three times equals 12 hours in total. The rest of the day is devoted to truck maintenance, meals, supplies, cleaning weapons and sleeping. Increase the distance to 90 miles and the truck can make two trips per day. At 180 miles, the same truck only has one trip a day. These assumptions will not work on rough terrain or where infrastructure is limited/damaged. If an army has just enough trucks to stay within 45 miles, then at 90 miles the throughput will be 33% lower. At 180 miles it will be down 66%. The farther you travel from supply dumps, the fewer supplies you can replace in a single day.
Turns out the lack of crates or forklifts in Russia means that loading and unloading their trucks takes much longer than an hour, more like 2-4 times longer. Each Russian artillery shell weighs 114 pounds, and the crate with propellant weighs about 170 pounds. Each must be loaded and unloaded by by the hand.
Imagine loading or unloading an entire truck full of these crates, with nothing to grab, not even handles. Yeah, it’s gonna take some time. Then multiply by the thousands of rounds consumed by the Russian artillery per day.
Meanwhile, roads near the front lines are messy, requiring travel at considerably slower speeds, mostly during daylight hours. Meanwhile, Ukraine is doing everything to make these roads impassable.
And it’s hilarious:
The bridge had literally just reopened, rebuilt by Russian Railways special troops after retreating Ukrainian forces blew it up. She was even blessed by an Orthodox priest.
But the bridge was within range of Ukrainian artillery, so an easy target. And it’s not the only one now within range thanks to newly arrived Western artillery and rocket systems.
Road travel in times of war is difficult. So instead of three daily trips, we’re probably talking about one. Maybe. And remember, Russia must move everything that supplies an army – artillery and tank cartridges, small arms ammunition, spare parts, food, water, fuel, etc.
Thus, the war enters a third phase. The Battle of Donbass may be ongoing, but it is a new kind of warfare. Russia’s need to drive deeper into Ukrainian territory to contest the two strongholds of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will rekindle the same logistical challenges we saw at the start of the war. In fact, they will be much worse, as Russia will no longer be able to store ammunition next to the railheads for easy dispersal to the front. HIMARS will require Russia to multiply and disperse smaller stocks away from these railheads, much further from the front. If Ukraine ends up getting ATACMS rockets for its HIMARS, as rumor has it, with their 300 kilometer range, Russia’s woes will only multiply. And then there is this:
Russian artillery is still burning in its local ammunition supply. We should see a decrease in fire intensity over the next week if Ukraine is indeed serving Russian logistics.
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Take a look at the German/Dutch Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000) self-propelled gun in action, there’s nothing like it:
The barrel can adjust like this five rounds all the lands to the exactly at the same time. I wouldn’t be surprised if these guys were behind that wall of fire on the Kherson front:
It certainly looks like Kherson Oblast:
Here is a loaded PzH 2000 with its full complement of 50 shells.
Ukraine has 12 from German and Dutch stocks.
Meanwhile, the United States is sending more HIMARS and, for the first time, long-range Excalibur precision-guided artillery munitions.
This will total 12 HIMARS, plus the nine M270 MLRS launchers that the UK and Germany are sending. it will be a challenge to provide so many people with a constant flow of pods.
M982 Excalibur rounds cost $112,800 each (or $112 million in this package alone). The HIMARS/MLRS rockets cost around $130,000 each. Don’t be surprised if Ukraine stops getting launchers and guns, and most of the remaining aid goes to paying for expensive ammunition and spare parts. That’s not a bad thing. Chances are ammo supply is the current bottleneck, not artillery guns or MLRS launchers.
(Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are another matter…)
