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The false flag operations that Ukraine and Western intelligence had been warning about for weeks appeared to begin on Friday when a car exploded in Donetsk, the largest city in the separatist areas of Donbass, and separatist leaders called for a mass evacuation of civilians to Russia.
The call for an emergency evacuation was made by Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, one of two Russian-backed separatist governments, in a speech in which he claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was planning a military attack – an allegation that drew swift and forceful denials from the Ukrainian government.
Western powers, including the United States, have warned for weeks that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use a type of provocation manufactured in separatist areas to justify a military strike or even a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
For this reason, Washington and the capitals of other NATO allies have strongly urged Zelenskiy to limit his army’s response to ceasefire violations and avoid being provoked into a conflict with potentially catastrophic consequences for his country. Georgia is widely believed to have fallen into such a Russian trap in 2008, leading to a brief and disastrous war.
The effort to create the appearance of danger for pro-Russian civilians seemed clumsy at best. No injuries were reported in the car bomb attack, which occurred near a government administrative building.
And the Russian news site Znak site reported that the Rostov regional government, where potentially more than 3 million evacuees would be sent, only learned of the situation on the news.
But it wasn’t clear that any of this would matter. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, initially responded to the evacuation announcement by telling Russian media: “I don’t know what’s going on with Pushilin.” But later, Peskov said Putin had ordered Russia’s emergency services minister to Rostov to help manage the situation, and had also ordered emergency payments of 10,000 rubles, or about €115, to each refugee.
There was also unconfirmed reports that Pushilin’s video and a similar video message from the leader of the Lugansk People’s Republic, Leonid Pasechnik, had in fact been recorded two days earlier.
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will soon order the military to go on the offensive, to implement a plan to invade the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics,” Pushilin said in his video.
“Therefore, from today, February 18, a massive and centralized departure of the population to the Russian Federation has been organized,” he said. “First of all, women, children and the elderly must be evacuated. We kindly ask you to listen and make the right decision. A temporary departure will save the life and health of you and your loved ones.
Indeed, many residents of the occupied areas have long since fled because of the war that has been raging in the Donbass for nearly eight years. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that more than 700,000 people have been internally displaced due to the long-running conflict.
In any case, several government ministries in Kyiv quickly strongly denied any attack.
“Ukrainian citizens live on both sides of the line,” Ukraine’s foreign ministry said. “Their peace, security and prosperity are a top priority for the Ukrainian state.
Allegations that the Ukrainian authorities intend to launch an offensive in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are false.
The ministry added: “Ukraine is not carrying out or planning any sabotage in the Donbass. We categorically reject Russia’s attempts to aggravate the already tense security situation. We remain firmly committed to the politico-diplomatic settlement and, with our partners, we are doing everything we can to reduce tensions and keep the situation in line with diplomatic dialogue.
Western governments have compiled detailed lists of examples of Russian disinformation that could potentially be used by Putin to justify an invasion or other attack on Ukraine. The Russian president has warned that he could be forced to take “military-technical” measures if the West fails to respond adequately to a series of security guarantees he demanded in December.
The United States and NATO have rejected most of these demands, including guarantees that Ukraine will never join the alliance and the withdrawal of all allied forces from Eastern Europe as “no starters”. But they said they were ready to negotiate with Moscow on a range of other issues, including nuclear arms control.
Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline in Donbass have expressed frustration over orders from Kiev to avoid retaliating against ceasefire violations by the separatist side. And Western officials have repeatedly praised Ukraine for its restraint in the face of the looming threat of more than 100,000 Russian troops and heavy weaponry massed on its borders.
On Friday, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry also categorically denied any plan to attack the occupied areas and accused the separatists of being responsible for an upsurge in ceasefire violations in recent days, including shelling which has damaged two schools.
“While shelling Ukrainian educational institutions and residential buildings, Russian mercenaries at the same time spread information about an alleged offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the temporarily occupied territories,” the Defense Ministry said. “That’s misinformation.”
Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv and former boxing world champion, who was attending the Munich Security Conference, had a different word for it. “Bullshit,” he told POLITICO.
Erin Banco contributed reporting.