Ukraine: Russian forces continue their military operations in the east of the country from July 17 /update 163

Event

Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground operations in eastern Ukraine from July 17. However, military officials ordered Ukrainian forces to intensify attacks on July 16, likely confirming the end of the recent operational pause and renewed upcoming offensives. The most intense combat zones continue to occur in the northern and central regions of the Donetsk region, in particular in the Sloviansk, Siversk and Bakhmut sectors, as well as along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway (T1302 ) and south of the city of Donetsk. Despite orders to intensify attacks, ground activity remained limited on July 16, and Russian forces made no confirmed territorial gains.

In the south of the country, Moscow remains largely focused on consolidating defensive positions in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions amid announced Ukrainian counteroffensives. Ukrainian officials say they have made gains in the sector but are so far announcing only minimal details, likely to avoid detailing counter-offensive operations. Fighting also continues north of Kharkiv as Russia and Ukraine launch limited attacks and counterattacks on settlements along the line of contact. Russia bombed the city of Kharkiv for several consecutive days beginning July 17; further strikes on the city of Kharkiv are likely in the short term.

Moscow’s forces continued to carry out shelling, missile attacks and airstrikes both on the front line and in other parts of the country. Mykolaiv, in particular, is regularly the target of artillery and rocket attacks.

Disruptions and shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services to much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruption without notice. Civil aviation remains suspended and the country’s seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine’s national decree on martial law until August 23. Curfews are in effect in several regions. In the Kyiv region, a curfew is in effect from 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. until at least July 24. Night curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. and in the Zaporizhzhia region from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for critical infrastructure workers and people in need of urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or change curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceuticals, in several towns facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

The context

Moscow’s attention seems to have turned to the impending battles for Siversk, Bakhmut and Sloviansk. With the bulk of Russian personnel and equipment deployed in the Lugansk region, further major attacks on settlements bordering this area are likely. Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to reinforce defensive positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and between Bakhmut and Svitlodarsk; however, it remains possible that Ukrainian forces will retreat beyond the highway to more established defensive positions at Bakhmut and Siversk.

Regardless of Russia’s next major objective, an increase in Russian offensive operations is very likely throughout the combat zone in the coming days. The territorial situation in much of the country outside the Luhansk region has remained fairly static for some time. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy area from Russia’s Kursk Oblast also continued, with the likely aim of pinning down a number of Ukrainian forces in the area.

Ukraine has increasingly struck targets far behind Russian lines with advanced Western weapons in an attempt to stoke and degrade Russian forces, with the aim of eventually blocking the Russian advance. However, Kyiv forces continue to come under intense pressure in the Donbass as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and south of the country, particularly in the Donbass, Kharkiv and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to the central and western regions, in particular in Kyiv. Additionally, although many foreign governments continue to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the central and western regions of the country; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Tips

Avoid traveling to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider leaving the country if it is safe to do so. In the event of combat or airstrikes, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If authorities report an impending fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly obey the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to enter air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure prompt accountability of all staff operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel only on busy routes. Do not approach suspicious unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways – UZ
List of trains available by city
National Border Guard Service